TONY ABBOTT has pulled the opposition’s electoral support up from the basement, but the Coalition still faces an unusually embarrassing defeat.The pollster Andrew Catsaras has conducted extensive analysis of all available opinion poll results, finding that the Rudd government stands to achieve what no other first-term government has done since World War II: win with an increased majority.Mr Catsaras predicts that based on the way the polls are now, Labor would increase its tally in the House of Representatives by eight seats to 91, overturning the traditional decline that has afflicted first-term governments over the past 65 years.The pollster has reached this conclusion by studying all poll results from the first quarter of this year, including the Herald/Nielsen polls, Newspoll, Galaxy, Taverner and Westpoll. The analysis, broken down by state and weighted by sample size, shows that NSW would be the only state where Labor would be set back, with the loss of two seats, Robertson on the central coast and Macquarie, west of Sydney.In Victoria Labor would pick up two seats on the outskirts of Melbourne – McEwen and La Trobe – and up to four seats in Queensland, Mr Catsaras says. But he said the Coalition’s additional loss of eight seats to the ALP was an improvement from previous quarterly breakdowns, which showed the Coalition might lose more than 20 seats.Mr Abbott yesterday played down reports of falling Labor support. ”It’s very hard to beat a first-term government.”
Nanjing Night Net